Kenya by-elections 27 November 2025 were of little volume but their political meaning was monumental. With 24 seats on the line the elections have turned into a national referendum on the popularity of the politicians, the efficiency of party organs and the mood of the electorate ahead of the general elections 2027 which everyone is waiting for with bated breath.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) held elections in constituencies and wards, where vacancies followed funerals, resignations or appointments to government. Although by-elections usually mirror local politics, the kinds of events that happened this time offered a far deeper insight into the national political direction of Kenya.
It has been the United Democratic Alliance (UDA), the ruling party and its partner parties who have celebrated a good number of victories that at least in the eyes of observers, signaled the coalition’s strong network at the grassroots level and its ever-increasing clout in the areas which had been regarded as being competitive.
Leonard Muthende of UDA managed to win in Mbeere North with 15,802 votes, overcoming by a small difference the Democratic Party candidate Newton Kariuki (Karish) who had 15,308 votes. The extremely narrow margin not only proved UDA’s power but also showed the rising political competition in mount Kenya region.
Similarly, David Ndakwa from UDA prevailed over Seth Panyako from DAP-K in Malava, a fight that was equally as close as the previous ones. This triumph gave the signal that UDA is infiltrating new territories in Western Kenya – the region where the opposition parties have been taking the lead for quite some time. The wins have made President William Ruto’s camp strong in spirits as several leaders have welcomed the outcomes as a manifestation of the people’s trust in the government and their development agenda.
While UDA was making inroads into new territories, Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) was not standing still either as it demonstrated being able to maintain its strongholds and even winning back some very important seats that had slipped away.
Boyd Ongondo Were of ODM took the Kasipul seat back which used to be his late father’s renewing the party’s grip over that part of Nyanza region. On the other hand, in Magarini, Harrison Garama Kombe of ODM was a clear winner with the highest votes of the day, 17,909, while his counterpart from DCP, Stanley Karisa Kenga had only 8,907 votes to his name. The blowout was an emphatic demonstration of ODM’s strong political roots in the Coastal region.
In Ugunja, the ODM party was on the winning side, it came with Moses Omondi securing a victory after accumulating 9,237 votes. The vacated seat was due to the ex-MP’s Cabinet appointment. This success signaled that ODM is still the most dominant party in its base of Western Nyanza.
UDA’s triumphs in various areas are a sign of a solid national campaign structure, which they must be already preparing for the 2027 elections. Early on, these outcomes provide the party with the required momentum. On the other hand ODM’s ability to sweep the board in Nyanza and Coast serves as an affirmation that the opposition is still quite strong politically. These places will be the most important battlefields for the next presidential contest.
The tight contests in Malava and other Western regions suggest that voters are gradually becoming more and more willing to change their political allegiance. Both the ruling and opposition camps will be spending heavily in this region leading up to 2027.
Lots of polling stations reported very few voters. The situation indicates voter fatigue, dissatisfaction or lack of interest factors that could determine the fate of the 2027 elections depending on how parties choose to react. Out of 181 candidates in the by-elections, only two were women, thus calling once again for inclusiveness and the state of gender parity in Kenyan politics.
By-elections depend heavily on local issues and the personalities of candidates but the 2025 outcomes have the effects at the national level. They show tough competition between the ruling coalition and the opposition, highlight the areas where the political wind is changing and sketch the new map for Kenya’s 2027 general election.
Both sides have now a better understanding of where they are strong and weak. If these by-elections were a rehearsal then the people of Kenya should expect a very tightly contested, high-stakes political fight next time one that could change alliances, regional politics and even the whole country’s leadership.
