1. Natembeya Is a Movement, Not Just a Politician
Governor Natembeya’s Tawe Movement has grown beyond a county-level slogan. Though he is a member of DAP-K, the movement has earned national recognition due to his bold, outspoken style and strong grassroots presence. In Trans Nzoia, the Tawe wave has made it difficult for emerging challengers to gain traction.
For Nakhumicha, who only recently entered national political consciousness, attempting to confront such a force feels equivalent to sowing crops in a desert: the political soil is simply too dry for her ambitions to germinate.
2. Endorsement From Elders Strengthens His Regional Grip
Natembeya’s recent endorsement by Vihiga elders as a rising Luhya kingpin further solidified his regional influence. Symbolic as such endorsements may be, they carry deep cultural weight and help shape political narratives among grassroots communities.
This puts Nakhumicha on the back foot, as she lacks a comparable regional endorsement or cultural anchor.
3. Gender Dynamics Still Shape Western Kenya Politics
While the region has made progress, male chauvinism remains a significant factor in political decision-making. Leadership is still largely viewed through a patriarchal lens, making it more challenging for women to command widespread respect or authority, especially in high-stakes political contests.
This reality places Nakhumicha at an inherent disadvantage against a strong, assertive male figure like Natembeya.
4. Weak Grassroots Mobilisation
Unlike Natembeya, whose strength is built on people-centered mobilization, Nakhumicha’s political identity leans heavily on State connections and government machinery. Without a strong grassroots network, political survivability in Western Kenya becomes nearly impossible.
Her overreliance on the national government, rather than cultivating community-driven support, continues to undermine her credibility at the local level.
5. The Tawe Movement vs. Kenya Kwanza Narrative
The region is subtly shaping into a two-sided political contest: the bold, independent Tawe movement versus the Kenya Kwanza establishment. If residents are compelled to choose between the two, the momentum currently favors Natembeya.
His message resonates strongly with voters who feel sidelined by national power arrangements.
6. Association With Wetang’ula and Mudavadi
Nakhumicha’s alignment with Kenya Kwanza principals Moses Wetang’ula and Musalia Mudavadi may also work against her. The duo has faced criticism for failing to deliver the promised 30% development share for Western Kenya.
Their perceived self-interest has affected the political brand of those closely associated with them, including Nakhumicha.
In the fast-evolving political terrain of Western Kenya, Susan Nakhumicha appears significantly disadvantaged against Governor Natembeya. His strong grassroots base, cultural endorsements, regional influence, and bold political messaging overshadow Nakhumicha’s relatively recent entry, her association with a struggling national alliance, and the gender biases that continue to color leadership perceptions.
Unless major shifts occur, Natembeya’s political star will likely continue to shine brighter than that of the former CS.
