As the country prepares for the November 26th by-elections, momentum appears to be tilting toward the United Opposition. Several powerful dynamics are shaping the political landscape, and together they explain why the opposition is likely to sweep most of the seats. Below are the key reasons:
- Unprecedented Unity Across the Opposition
The United Opposition has adopted a coordinated strategy by fielding only one candidate per elective seat. This unity is evident in Kajiado, Malava under DAP, Mbeere, Kabuchai with a supported independent, and Magararin under DCP. By avoiding multiple candidates in the same seat, the opposition has eliminated vote-splitting and created a clear, consolidated alternative for voters. In tight by-election races, this approach gives them a decisive advantage.
- Government Leaders’ Bragging and Intimidation Pushing Voters Away
Some government leaders have hurt their own side by engaging in excessive displays of power—arriving in choppers to campaign for even MCA seats and allegedly intimidating local residents. These optics paint the government as out of touch and desperate. Instead of inspiring confidence, such actions often anger and alienate voters, pushing them toward the opposition as an act of defiance.
- Growing Unpopularity of the Kenya Kwanza Government
Across several regions, public dissatisfaction with the Kenya Kwanza administration has grown. Economic frustrations, unmet promises, and a perception of shrinking inclusivity have created fertile ground for protest voting. By-elections often serve as a safe way for citizens to express discontent, and many appear ready to send a message through the ballot.
- The Rigathi Gachagua Effect in Mount Kenya
In areas like Mbeere North, the influence of Rigathi Gachagua has become a major talking point. His door-to-door visits, tea sessions with locals, and personal storytelling efforts to boost Newton Karish’s candidacy underscore the high stakes. However, this intense involvement from such a senior figure may signal weakness rather than strength. It suggests the ruling side is worried about losing ground in a region it once dominated, giving the opposition psychological and strategic leverage.
- Violence and Goonism Creating Public Sympathy for the Opposition
Incidents of violence during the campaigns—especially in Kabuchai, where Natembeya’s motorcade was attacked, vehicles vandalized, and the home of Majimbo Kalasinga targeted for backing independent candidate Erick Wekesa—have generated a sympathy wave. Historically, Kenyan voters tend to rally behind political victims rather than aggressors. Such acts of intimidation often backfire, motivating voters to punish those perceived to be behind or benefiting from the chaos.
