As some Kenyans prepare for by-elections at the end of this week and the 2027 elections slowly coming into view a familiar question resurfaces, Do Kenyans vote for competence or do we vote for leaders based on popularity and identity?
This is a question that often generate passionate debate especially among the youth who insist that they are more issue driven, more progressive and tribeless compared to those before them. Yet, when the ballot boxes open the results tend to tell a different story as it was in the past. All our declarations of wanting capable, honest and development oriented leaders is often overshadowed by popularity.
Many Kenyans express a desire for competent leadership individuals with a clear record of delivery, integrity and ability. But election after election, the same patterns recur, ethnic voting blocs remain powerful, Party loyalty overshadows independent judgment, Personality cults dominate public conversation and the kingpin ship political culture continues to shape voter choices.
The result is a system where performance becomes secondary. The question becomes not Who can deliver? but “Whose person is he?”, “Which party is she or he aligned to?” or “Is he a from our tribe?” This is why, despite clear evidence of underperformance, many politicians return to office with overwhelming majorities. The ballot often rewards recognition and not results.
The coming by-elections will offer useful insight into our national mindset. These elections are smaller in scale but sharper in their revelation. The stakes are high and campaigns intense but tribal, party and personality dynamics are even more pronounced. Candidates rarely Centre their campaigns on their track record or policy proposals.
Instead, they rely on ethnic mobilization, charismatic appeal, party and strategic endorsements. And voters respond accordingly. By elections, often feel less like democratic contests and more like loyalty tests. The question becomes, Which camp are you with ? rather than Who can deliver for the constituency? If competency were the priority, the data from the Auditor General’s reports, EACC investigations and county performance indicators would play a greater role in shaping public decisions.
There is a shift happening among young people. Gen Z voters now entering the political space with digital activism, bold demands and “tribeless” rhetoric as they bring a different language into politics. They speak of accountability, transparency and issue based politics.
They challenge old systems through online movements and community organizing. But translating this energy into electoral outcomes is another story and several factors limit this shift. Low trust in institutions, especially the IEBC, discourages meaningful participation. Fragmented youth politics, with many voices but little unified strategy. The sheer weight of historical voting patterns, where older generations still outnumber younger ones.
So while the youth are increasingly vocal about competence their influence at the ballot remains muted. Popularity still wins sometimes by a landslide.
Every time we prioritize charisma over capability Kenyan citizens pays a price. We pay it in stalled development projects, misuse of public funds, mismanagement of counties, unfulfilled manifestos and leaders who treat office as a reward and not a responsibility. We have normalized electing individuals first and holding them accountable later if ever. It is a political habit that keeps the country in a cycle of underperformance.
If we are to break from this cycle two shifts are necessary. First is strengthening civic education and it must go beyond reminding citizens to register. It must teach voters why track records matter more than tribe, why integrity is a development issue and why charisma is not a substitute for competence. Number two is political parties must practice real internal democracy and present clear ideological positions because when parties elevate mediocrity voters inherit the consequences.
We cannot call ourselves a mature democracy while still voting for leaders based on familiarity, tribal nostalgia, or showmanship. Kenya’s future and the quality of our institutions depends on whether we are willing to vote with our heads and not reflexes.
As by elections approach and national campaigns begin to gather momentum, we face a simple but profound choice to reward the competent over popularity.
